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Stability and Accuracy Trade-offs in Statistical Estimation
Chakraborty, Abhinav, Luo, Yuetian, Barber, Rina Foygel
Algorithmic stability is a central concept in statistics and learning theory that measures how sensitive an algorithm's output is to small changes in the training data. Stability plays a crucial role in understanding generalization, robustness, and replicability, and a variety of stability notions have been proposed in different learning settings. However, while stability entails desirable properties, it is typically not sufficient on its own for statistical learning -- and indeed, it may be at odds with accuracy, since an algorithm that always outputs a constant function is perfectly stable but statistically meaningless. Thus, it is essential to understand the potential statistical cost of stability. In this work, we address this question by adopting a statistical decision-theoretic perspective, treating stability as a constraint in estimation. Focusing on two representative notions-worst-case stability and average-case stability-we first establish general lower bounds on the achievable estimation accuracy under each type of stability constraint. We then develop optimal stable estimators for four canonical estimation problems, including several mean estimation and regression settings. Together, these results characterize the optimal trade-offs between stability and accuracy across these tasks. Our findings formalize the intuition that average-case stability imposes a qualitatively weaker restriction than worst-case stability, and they further reveal that the gap between these two can vary substantially across different estimation problems.
Performance Improvement Bounds for Lipschitz Configurable Markov Decision Processes
The framework of the Configurable Markov Decision Processes (Conf-MDPs, Metelli et al., 2018, 2019, 2022) has been introduced in recent years to model a wide range of real-world scenarios in which an agent has the opportunity to alter some environmental parameters in order to improve its learning experience. Conf-MDPs can be thought to as an extension of the traditional Markov Decision Processes (MDP, Puterman, 1994) to account for scenarios that emerge quite often in the Reinforcement Learning (RL, Sutton and Barto, 2018) problems, in which the environment rarely represents an immutable entity and can, indeed, be subject to partial control. In the Conf-MDP framework, the activity of altering the environmental parameters is named environment configuration and serves different purposes. In the simplest scenario, the configuration is carried out by the agent itself that acts as a configurator. This might suggest, at a first sight, that environment configuration can be modeled within the agent actuation.
On Variance Estimation of Random Forests with Infinite-Order U-statistics
Xu, Tianning, Zhu, Ruoqing, Shao, Xiaofeng
Infinite-order U-statistics (IOUS) has been used extensively on subbagging ensemble learning algorithms such as random forests to quantify its uncertainty. While normality results of IOUS have been studied extensively, its variance estimation approaches and theoretical properties remain mostly unexplored. Existing approaches mainly utilize the leading term dominance property in the Hoeffding decomposition. However, such a view usually leads to biased estimation when the kernel size is large or the sample size is small. On the other hand, while several unbiased estimators exist in the literature, their relationships and theoretical properties, especially the ratio consistency, have never been studied. These limitations lead to unguaranteed performances of constructed confidence intervals. To bridge these gaps in the literature, we propose a new view of the Hoeffding decomposition for variance estimation that leads to an unbiased estimator. Instead of leading term dominance, our view utilizes the dominance of the peak region. Moreover, we establish the connection and equivalence of our estimator with several existing unbiased variance estimators. Theoretically, we are the first to establish the ratio consistency of such a variance estimator, which justifies the coverage rate of confidence intervals constructed from random forests. Numerically, we further propose a local smoothing procedure to improve the estimator's finite sample performance. Extensive simulation studies show that our estimators enjoy lower bias and archive targeted coverage rates.
Control Frequency Adaptation via Action Persistence in Batch Reinforcement Learning
Metelli, Alberto Maria, Mazzolini, Flavio, Bisi, Lorenzo, Sabbioni, Luca, Restelli, Marcello
The choice of the control frequency of a system has a relevant impact on the ability of reinforcement learning algorithms to learn a highly performing policy. In this paper, we introduce the notion of action persistence that consists in the repetition of an action for a fixed number of decision steps, having the effect of modifying the control frequency. We start analyzing how action persistence affects the performance of the optimal policy, and then we present a novel algorithm, Persistent Fitted Q-Iteration (PFQI), that extends FQI, with the goal of learning the optimal value function at a given persistence. After having provided a theoretical study of PFQI and a heuristic approach to identify the optimal persistence, we present an experimental campaign on benchmark domains to show the advantages of action persistence and proving the effectiveness of our persistence selection method.
On Tighter Generalization Bound for Deep Neural Networks: CNNs, ResNets, and Beyond
Li, Xingguo, Lu, Junwei, Wang, Zhaoran, Haupt, Jarvis, Zhao, Tuo
Our paper proposes a generalization error bound for a general family of deep neural networks based on the spectral norm of weight matrices. Through introducing a novel characterization of the Lipschitz properties of neural network family, we achieve a tighter generalization error bound for ultra-deep neural networks, whose depth is much larger than the square root of its width. Besides the general deep neural networks, our results can be applied to derive new bounds for several popular architectures, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), residual networks (ResNets), and hyperspherical networks (SphereNets). In the regime that the depth of these architectures is dominating, our bounds allow for the choice of much larger parameter spaces of weight matrices, inducing potentially stronger expressive ability.